According to a report by the UK Health Security Agency, if temperatures rise by 4C by 2100 due to high emissions, several parts of the UK could become breeding grounds for mosquitoes that can transmit viruses such as dengue fever, chikungunya, and zika virus. The worst-case scenario report highlights that the UK would be the first country in the UK to be affected, with Wales, Northern Ireland, and parts of the Scottish Lowlands becoming suitable habitats later in the century. The report, which brings together evidence of the current health effects of climate change, states that greenhouse gas emissions need to be substantially cut to prevent the worst outcomes.
Although the world is currently on-track for a 2.7C warming by 2100 based on current climate commitments, the report warns that the UK should prepare for a worst-case scenario. The report’s authors stress their concern over invasive species such as the Asian tiger mosquito, which carries diseases only after biting infected people. With London expected to see cases of dengue fever by 2060 if no action is taken, the UKHSA has started a surveillance system to quickly detect invasive mosquitoes.
The report highlights that several potential problems can be mitigated with swift action, including a rise in heat-related deaths and flooding, which can be avoided through national heat and cold alert systems and improvements in flood defences. The impact of climate change is set to affect the most vulnerable, including older people, those with medical conditions or living in deprived areas, and children. The report warns that, without interventions and adaptations, up to 10,000 excess deaths a year could result from extreme heat by the 2050s due to changing rainfall patterns that increase the risk of flooding.
Professor Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate Change at the University of Reading, warns that planners should prepare for the worst case as the consequences of underestimated risks are significant. The report also stresses that the establishment of invasive species in the UK is irreversible, highlighting the importance of immediate and targeted interventions and adaptations
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