Professor Michael Mann, a renowned climatologist, has recently penned a book titled Our Fragile Moment, in which he elaborates on surviving the climate crisis. Explaining why he remains optimistic despite the looming crisis, he cites “four billion years ago, when our sun was only 70% as bright as it is today, climate models indicate that Earth should have been a frozen planet. And yet, it wasn’t.” The Earth displayed resilience and had teaming water oceans full of primitive life. He adds that life through controlling the global carbon cycle played a key role in keeping the planetary temperature stable, indicating the self-stabilization of the Earth system relating to the Gaia hypothesis.
He dismisses claims by climate doomers that it is too late to act, with the analogy that Earth is exceeding a point of runaway warming that may cause it to lose 90% of its species, citing evidence of a massive release of permafrost methane. However, he adds that there is no evidence of such extreme alteration occurring today, let alone one caused by runaway warming. He explains that the extinction event that led to the dinosaur’s demise was due to their lack of foresight and capability to act whereas the modern world is aware of the metaphorical asteroid, that is the climate crisis, and the battle over urgent action lies in winning the hearts and minds of the public and politicians.
He also states that, like the paleoclimate data, climate models have proven surprisingly accurate. Mann also sheds light on progress made in the direction of decarbonizing our societal infrastructure. He believes that the world has come a long way since the Paris agreement was signed in 2016 and the world was looking at the possibility of a 4C future warming in the absence of policy action. However, the global temperatures are now likely to stabilize below 3C due to the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Mann emphasized that the models are accurate as they have consistently shown climate sensitivity consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. He says the truth is bad enough, and there’s no need to exaggerate the science to motivate urgent action. Finally, he hopes that politicians will act on behalf of the public, rather than polluters. Despite it being our own making, there’s still a chance to limit the increase in carbon dioxide, preserve our delicate moment, and keep warming below danger levels.
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