According to a former senior government scientific adviser, it was apparent as early as February 2020 that the National Health Service (NHS) would be overwhelmed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Professor Graham Medley told the Covid inquiry that the civil servants would have been aware of those concerns during that time. The government implemented the initial nationwide lockdown on 23 March 2020 and has continuously maintained that its actions were to safeguard lives and livelihoods through the pandemic.
The inquiry will hear from former ministers, including the ex-Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and the former Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, later in the year. As a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and a co-chair for the SPI-M-O subgroup, which calculated the spread of the virus, Professor Medley provided evidence that the extent of the epidemic became evident by February 2020. According to Professor Medley, the infection fatality rate, which is the proportion of people dying following infection, was determined to be around 1% by that point. He explained that they could calculate the number of individuals who would die if 80% of the population got infected in a single wave.
Although the formal minutes of the Sage group did not document high-level concerns during that period regarding the impact on the NHS, Professor Medley claims that the civil servants responsible for the documentation would have “completely understood” the views of the scientists. Furthermore, he mentioned an account named “Dominic Cummings iPhone X,” which also joined remote meetings of the SPI-M-O subgroup during that time, despite not appearing in the paperwork.
The government allowed mass gatherings to proceed through the first half of March 2020, including a Six Nations rugby match at Twickenham on 7 March and the Cheltenham horseracing festival from 10-13 March. A mandatory stay-at-home order was announced with a full national lockdown on 23 March of that year.
The Covid inquiry is examining the political decision-making that transpired during the pandemic, from January 2020 through February 2022, including the effectiveness and timing of lockdowns and other social distancing restrictions. Starting in London, it will hear from witnesses until Christmas before moving to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland to look specifically at the decisions made by administrators in those areas of the United Kingdom
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