The recent by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West has sent shockwaves throughout the Scottish political scene, potentially altering the forecast for the next general election. Labour’s incredible victory has given them hope for a revival in Scotland, buoyed by their massive swing of 20.4% from the SNP. Labour’s leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, has claimed that Scotland will pave the way for a UK-wide Labour government, and with good reason, as this result has transformed the Scottish political weather.
While it is true that the absence of success in Scotland for Labour makes winning a general election incredibly difficult, this by-election result indicates that it could change and change big time at the next general election. Every general election since the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 has seen Labour’s representation in Scottish seats at Westminster become smaller and smaller, but this recent win could change that. The Conservatives, now 13 years into a stint in office in Westminster, have been in a long-standing hole in the opinion polls, facing similar issues with political aging as the SNP.
While by-elections are only a snapshot of public feeling, this incredible victory by Labour should have Scottish politicians taking note. The SNP faces three major challenges, with their aging party, a lack of routes to secure an independence referendum, and an ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances, which has led to the arrest of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband. In contrast, the Labour party sees this as an opportunity to win a dozen or more seats at the general election. Some Scottish Labour figures now claim they are serious contenders in as many as 28 seats.
It is still too early to tell what will happen in the next general election, but this by-election result has certainly changed the forecasts some will make about it. Keir Starmer’s path to Downing Street may have become much more navigable, and Labour’s success in Scotland will only bolster their chances. While Labour is still a long way from returning to pre-independence referendum politics in Scotland, this result gives them hope for many more Scottish MPs. As by-elections are often the mood makers of politics, this thunderbolt of a result leaves Labour chipper and optimistic, with the SNP and the Conservatives looking gloomy
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More